epdon wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
Dad_Of_A_Don wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 15 Jan 2022:
Play-offs - <1%
Get promoted - <1%
Get relegated - 30%
League finish - 19th
30% doesn't sound
too bad and it
feels a lot higher to me.
But to put it into proper perspective - how many teams have a higher chance of relegation at this stage?
If ours is the highest, or amongst the highest, percentages in the league - that tells you more about where we are at.
As indicated by our projected league finish of 19th, thankfully there are 5 teams with a higher overall probability of relegation than us (at the moment) despite three of those 5 currently having more points than us.
However, our probability of relegation is now 31% as of last night, and there's a very similar probability of us finishing safe in 19th or 20th, as there is to us finishing 21st & relegated atm, with over 45% of the season remaining.
Its not clear from their website how far back their model looks. Certainly at the start of the season it must have been using last season’s results. As this season progressed, these would gradually have been replaced by more recent (worse) performances. I do wonder though if our current probabilities are still partly influenced by some of the better 21/22 results.
Every team’s ratings are indeed adjusted after every match, based on its performance in that match & the strength of its opponent, so the model updates quickly to take into account the reality of what's really happening, as the season progresses.
The projection of us finishing 5th just ahead of the first game, immediately fell to 8th straight after our first game, and to 10th following only our second game - see the first posts on page 1 of this thread.
The key point is that
every team’s ratings are adjusted after every match, and it applies for every team that does
better than expected, just as it does for every team that does
worse than expected, so the model for any team relative to all the other teams in the league, is as good as it gets and is as updated as it can be for
everyone in the league, imho.
There
are other projections out there with what appear to be much simpler models - we're projected to finish 22nd on just 37 pts on one of them, with Forest Green bottom on just 24 pts - but they're far too over-simplified to be credible and not worth sharing, imho.
Hence I update & share these probabilities, as they seem to be the ones that best approach reality, imho.
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