THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

I've followed the team long enough not to presume anything about safety, and that definitely includes now.

That said, I reckon we will end up with 50 points, so 11 points from the last 13 games. I reckon that the 6 games in March will give us 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses - so up to 44 points
April and May will give us 1xW 3xD 3xL - making the 50.

Do we actually need 50 points? The bottom 2 are on 26 with 14 or 15 games left. That means they need more than 1.7 points per game for the remainder of the season.
43 points would have kept us up last season and 44 points the one before. We may only need a couple more wins or several draws to be safe

It’s being very much overlooked just how totally crap you have to be to get relegated from this division. It is an appalling league - possibly the worst L2 of our L2 seasons for overall quality.

This based on the PPG they have accrued so far we are already safe!

Yes, I don't think we will *need* 50 points, but I reckon that's where we will end up.

If we can get a win in the next two games, that would help take a bit of nervous tension out of it !

It would take a ridiculous uptick in form for not just the bottom 2 but also the other 5 teams that are currently below us for us to be dragged into a relegation battle at this point. As others have said, it's not impossible that we actually already have enough points but I'm sure we'll manage to scrape together a few more before the end of the season

Over the last 10 seasons (excluding 19/20 due to Covid), the average number of points required to stay up is 43.6. Only twice in those 10 season was 39 points enough. The highest points required over those 10 season would have required 51 points.

After the Accrington game, I'm revising my prediction to 45 points

Will that be enough ?

Where are we getting 6 points from?

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Most pessimistic poster - 2020