- 13 games and 39 points left to play for. Mean average points for survival over the past 20 seasons has been 49 points (due to an anomaly of 45 points needed in one season), but the mode average is 51 points. So let's say 50 points for survival.
- We need 19 more points to stay up, so we need to be averaging 1.46 points per game i.e. we need to be winning and drawing more games than we are losing, with more wins than draws.
- We are currently averaging 0.93 points per game across the season. Since Micciche took over, we've averaged 0.2 points per game. Under Neilson we were averaging 1.07 points per game this season. Since 1st October we've averaged 0.66 points per game.
- Roughly, at most we can afford to lose SIX more games this season and still stay up, but that would pretty much mean winning the other 7 games.
- We need to be showing at least mid-table form for the rest of the season, based on current form and average points per game of other teams in the league.
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Points total for last 13 games for our last 5 seasons in League One:
2016/17: 19 points (finished 12th) 2014/15: 29 points (finished 2nd) 2013/14: 14 points (finished 10th) 2012/13: 23 points (finished 8th) 2011/12: 21 points (finished 5th)
Basically we need to be showing the kind of form that we did under Neilson at the tail end of last season when we beat Charlton, Gillingham, Southend, Walsall, Coventry and drew with Bradford, Rochdale, Port Vale and Swindon. We only lost 4 games to Millwall, Kingston, Scunthorpe and Sheffield United.
The only time this season we have matched that was the 13 games between 19th August and 21st October when we won 5, drew 4 and lost 4. We beat Gillingham, Plymouth, Rochdale, Kingston and Bury, and drew with Oxford, Northampton, Walsall and Oldham.
Interesting that the best form we've had this season has been when we've taken points from teams that are generally now in the relegation zone/bottom half (Kingston, Rochdale, Gillingham, Bury, Northampton, Walsall, Oldham).
Remaining fixtures
Fleetwood (A) Bristol Rovers (H) Bradford (A) Rotherham (H) Bury (H) Blackpool (H) Gillingham (A) Blackburn (H) Wigan (A) Doncaster (H) Southend (A) Scunthorpe (H) Shrewsbury (A)
- If the results for the reverse fixtures are the same, then we would take 12 points and average 0.92 points per game - which is pretty much bang on what we've averaged throughout the season as a whole so far and would be some way off staying up.
- Away from home we have only taken 12 points out of a possible 51, averaging 0.70 points per game. Going by our form, that would suggest 4 points from a possible 18 in the remaining 6 away games we have.
- At home, we have taken 19 points out of a possible 48 points, averaging 1.19 points per game. Going by our form, that would suggest approximately 8 points from a possible 21 in the remaining 7 home games we have.
- Again, this further backs up our form, and so all the indicators are that we will get somewhere between 12-13 points out of a possible 39, which wouldn't be near the 19 points needed to survive.
- Final table prediction is we finish on 44 points, which on average in the past 20 seasons would leave us in 22nd place. The lowest points for survival in the past 20 seasons has been 45 points, which is a real anomaly compared to the usual 50/51.
Basically, the odds are hugely stacked against us looking at the table, points needed and our form. We would need to match our best form this season, and match the form we showed under Neilson's last 13 games of last season for us to just about stay up by the skin of our teeth.
Get ready for League Two folks.
Last edited by FilthyDon on Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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