THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

I thought it would be interesting plotting the expected goals in our previous games:

Cambridge: For 0.23, Against 0.50
Ipswich: For 0.42, Against 1.09
Port Vale: For 0.45, Against 0.84
Accrington: For 0.62, Against 1.66
Watford: For 0.69, Against 0.88
Morecambe: For 1.58, Against 0.80
Exeter: For 0.18, Against 1.15
Bolton: For 0.22, Against 1.93
Oxford: For 1.04, Against 1.27
Posh: For 0.50, Against 1.62
Shrews: For 0.42, Against 0.75
B Rovers: For 0.10, Against 1.44
Plymouth: For 0.42, Against 1.87

Lowest: For 0.10, Against 0.50
Highest: For 1.58, Against 1.93

Reference Fotmob.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

That is rather depressive reading

_________________
Most pessimistic poster - 2020

Wycombe: For 0.71, Against. 0.75. Better.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

Charlton: For 1.26, against 0.30.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

Still behind on expected goals. I would have thought we would be closer after our late flurry and we had more shots and corners. I guess the difference was mainly due to their big chance.

Cheltenham: For 0.55, Against 0.96.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

It seems it's shots in the box that made the difference.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

Penalties account for about 0.76 each so only achieving greater than 1 expected goals once this season without including the penalties is pretty atrocious.

But if you don't get a penalty

There is 68.75% a penalty being scored, but only 21.05% chance of a penalty being awarded.

https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/bettin ... lties.html

The breakdown of Dons xG is 0.43 open play and 0.12 set play. Interestingly if we take the probably of shots on target resulting in a goal, it increases to 2.91.

https://www.fotmob.com/match/3915999/ma ... enham-town

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

Derby: For 1.58, Against 0.84. A moral victory?

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.

Barnsley: For 0.34. Against 1.26.

_________________
Disclaimer: All my comments are my opinions unless stated otherwise. I'm just a fan following my club.