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keyser soze
PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:19 am 
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On our way, we're on our way...!

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BetterCallSaul
PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 9:43 pm 
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 16 Aug 2022:

Champions - 2%
2nd place - 3%
Play-offs - 20%
Top 6 finish - 25%

Get promoted - 11%
Get relegated - 6%

League finish - 9th


How does this work if we are 3rd bottom?

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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2022 5:21 pm 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 20 Aug 2022:

Champions - <1%
2nd place - 2%
Play-offs - 18%
Top 6 finish - 20%

Get promoted - 8%
Get relegated - 7%

League finish - 11th

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PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2022 5:22 pm 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
BetterCallSaul wrote:
How does this work if we are 3rd bottom?
It's a complex predictive model that's updated after every game, which plays out the remainder of the whole season tens of thousands of times, generating the probabilities of those various outcomes.
There's still 41 games left and it's almost as probable that we'll get relegated as promoted atm, hence the most probable finishing position is 11th now.
If you prefer though, there's currently an 80% probability that we won't finish in the top 6 this season. ;)

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PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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BristolDon
PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:08 am 
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
BetterCallSaul wrote:
How does this work if we are 3rd bottom?
It's a complex predictive model that's updated after every game, which plays out the remainder of the whole season tens of thousands of times, generating the probabilities of those various outcomes.
There's still 41 games left and it's almost as probable that we'll get relegated as promoted atm, hence the most probable finishing position is 11th now.
If you prefer though, there's currently an 80% probability that we won't finish in the top 6 this season. ;)

I've always wondered, and hopefully you're able to clarify, but what are their inputs in this Monte Carlo model? Is each result (win/lose/draw) equally likely? Or does it actually have different score line probabilities for each team (i.e. MK Dons vs Accrington Stanley had a 40% chance Dons win, whereas us vs Sheffield Wednesday had a 20% chance we in etc.)? And if so, how does it calculate it? Is it based on xG stats etc.?
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:16 am 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
BristolDon wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
BetterCallSaul wrote:
How does this work if we are 3rd bottom?
It's a complex predictive model that's updated after every game, which plays out the remainder of the whole season tens of thousands of times, generating the probabilities of those various outcomes.
There's still 41 games left and it's almost as probable that we'll get relegated as promoted atm, hence the most probable finishing position is 11th now.
If you prefer though, there's currently an 80% probability that we won't finish in the top 6 this season. ;)
I've always wondered, and hopefully you're able to clarify, but what are their inputs in this Monte Carlo model? Many, varied & complex.
Is each result (win/lose/draw) equally likely? No.
Or does it actually have different score line probabilities for each team (i.e. MK Dons vs Accrington Stanley had a 40% chance Dons win, whereas us vs Sheffield Wednesday had a 20% chance we in etc.)? Yes.
And if so, how does it calculate it? Is it based on xG stats etc.? It's much more varied & complex.
The main thing is it suggests reasonably probable outcomes for the league season, which can provide some helpful counterperspective to any binary/bipolar Boom/Doom following whatever our previous result was. :D

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134 grounds - 78/92
PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:19 am 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 27 Aug 2022:

Champions - 2%
2nd place - 4%
Play-offs - 25%
Top 6 finish - 31%

Get promoted - 12%
Get relegated - 3%

League finish - 8th

_________________
APL Champion 2017/18
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
134 grounds - 78/92
PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:43 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:55 am
Posts: 6138
Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 3 Sep 2022:

Champions - 1%
2nd place - 3%
Play-offs - 20%
Top 6 finish - 24%

Get promoted - 10%
Get relegated - 4%

League finish - 10th

_________________
APL Champion 2017/18
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
134 grounds - 78/92
PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:18 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:55 am
Posts: 6138
Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 13 Sep 2022:

Champions - <1%
2nd place - 1%
Play-offs - 14%
Top 6 finish - 15%

Get promoted - 6%
Get relegated - 7%

League finish - 10th

_________________
APL Champion 2017/18
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
134 grounds - 78/92
PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot
PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:33 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:55 am
Posts: 6138
Location: .... In SG19 ..... Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 2019/20
End of season 2022/23 probabilities - as at 17 Sep 2022:

Champions - <1%
2nd place - 2%
Play-offs - 18%
Top 6 finish - 20%

Get promoted - 8%
Get relegated - 4%

League finish - 10th

_________________
APL Champion 2017/18
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
134 grounds - 78/92
PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set, and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.
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