THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

Here are the first predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish 33.3% probable, play-offs or better 75% probable, and relegation 0% probable, atm.




Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/
And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

I don't disagree with the predicted final order although I am surprised that Lincoln seem to be almost bankers for a top 3 position whereas we only have a 1 in 3 likelihood of the same. Given the historic volatility of this league, the fact that we're still relatively early in the season and the apparent slight recent dip in form (lost at Tranmere, drew at home to Cambridge), I'd have thought Lincoln's expectations of top 3 would have been a bit closer to Exeter and us. Very interesting analysis however and I'm sure they've got a wizzy computer spewing all this out though so what do I know?

_________________
Drives me mad but what else would I do on a Saturday afternoon?

Here are the latest predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 52% probable, play-offs or better now 93% probable, and relegation still 0% probable, atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Here are the latest predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 22% probable, play-offs or better now 81% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 19% probable, atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Don't think his maths works out on that one. He must have forgot to carry over 78 to make it 100% probably we'll go up automatically.
WABLO

Here are the latest predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 23% probable, play-offs or better now 80% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 20% probable, atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Here are the predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season as at 10 Feb 2019, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 13% probable, play-offs or better now 69% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 29% probable atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Here are the predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season as at 17 Feb 2019, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 37% probable, play-offs or better now 93% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 7% probable atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Here are the predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season as at 24 Feb 2019, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 39% probable, play-offs or better now 96% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 4% probable atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

Here are the predicted finishing positions for League 2 this season as at 5 Mar 2019, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361 :
A top 3 finish is now 42% probable, play-offs or better now 98% probable, while not making the play-offs is only 2% probable atm.


And if you don't like them, don't come here into Statto's Corner to look at them & whine about them...

Explanation:
You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side of the graphic as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table.

Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated 10,000 times or so, to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

Each club’s current E-ratings and those of their remaining opponents have been used to predict how the rest of the season could play out.

The graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won.

A full explanation & the E-ratings used may be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/explanation ... e-ratings/

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.