THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

THE CAZBAR BIG GAME PREVIEW – MANSFIELD
Here we go again then as we edge closer and closer to the finishing line, will we get a medal or fall agonisingly short and have to extend our season in the lottery of the playoffs, and we know our record in those….nervy times.

But before we get into the forthcoming game with Mansfield Town a quick look back at our day trip to the land of vegan cola…now in a green tin…….and very appealing to the eye….. not.

Seriously though I’m told the food was good, but personally I didn’t fancy a “Hug” roll which is of course a substitute for a hog roll. I can understand people’s views on animals, but I don’t get anyone saying its healthier, are they healthy natural additives to make it taste like a genuine hog roll or is it a witches brew of chemicals to make it taste that way….educate me.

On the scenic journey to the ground we did question how FGR had travelled to playoff pretenders Crewe the week before and had their trousers down 3-0, and on the way home we still had no clue as FGR looked like they were headed for the exit doors to the National League….it was and will remain a mystery.
We looked very comfortable on the tight New Lawn pitch with the surging runs of Garrick the only real danger, but he never ever got close enough to our goal to smell Kelly’s deodorant.

Skip and Tucker blended back in well and it’s probably our strongest lineup with the exception of Tommo for Wearne, and hopefully he will return on Saturday as I think we are so much better with him.

Both goals were taken well, Max Dean seizing on a mistake at the back for FGR shortly before the break, and 5 minutes after the re-start Gilbey finishing off a great move after good work from Bate and Lofthouse. It would have been nice if we could have added more, but FGR were really no threat and we just saw the game out and it always looked like we had more in the tank if needed.

Surprisingly….well I think it was as Crawley have re-found their early season form and spanked Mansfield 4-1, bet they wish they had left the sprinklers on again overnight.

What that result has done is given us an opportunity, win on Saturday and we pile the pressure on the Stags, it’s still in their hands but they have a tricky fixture on the last day away to Barrow, who themselves will be looking to cement their finishing position in the playoffs or better…….but more on this later.
Below are the usual stats for the game.

Dons (4th) – P 43, W 22, D 8, L 13, GF 73, GA 57, Pts 74.
Mansfield (3rd) – P 42, W 21, D 13, L 8, GF 81, GA 43, Pts 76.
Dons (H) (1st) – P 21, W 14, D 4, L 3, GF 43, GA 19, Pts 46.
Mansfield (A) (1st) – P 21, W 10, D 6, L 5, GF 42, GA 23, Pts 36.

Below is a breakdown of those Mansfield away results.

Won – Bradford, Newport, Forest Green, Stockport, Sutton, Crawley, Salford, Harrogate, Notts County, Accrington.
Drawn – Morecambe, Gillingham, Colchester, Grimsby, Doncaster, Crewe.
Lost – Wrexham, Tranmere, Walsall, AFC, Swindon,

Mansfield’s Current League Form (Last 6)

Mansfield 1 FGR 0
Mansfield 1 Crawley 4
Wrexham 2 Mansfield 0
Mansfield 1 Colchester 1
Bradford 1 Mansfield 5
Tranmere 2 Mansfield 1

As ever I will try and make sense of all those stats, but as we know it’s not a perfect science, and LG 2 has a habit of throwing up results that take some understanding - Remember Crewe 0 FGR 3.

Mansfield hosted FGR on Tuesday night so that is probably the most relevant piece of info to work from. Well they had plenty of efforts, but only managed a nervy 1-0 win, and it took a double save in the final minutes by Pym to keep a battling Rovers out. I’m not 100% sure that is a confidence booster….but it’s 3 points all the same and that’s all that matters at this stage of the season.

Obviously then, this is a clash of the Titans, we are top of the charts at home, and Mansfield are top away from home, we have the bragging rights having gone to their place and beating them 2-1 a few weeks ago, but with the stakes so high it really is a tough call. You can look at current form where Mansfield have taken just 4 points from the 12 available, but as we know ourselves a team’s fortunes can lurch from one week to the next.

Another of the most significant results is the win at Stockport, somewhere we took a right hammering, but that was back on New Years Day, and since then the Stags form has been up and down, and they are rumoured to be carrying a few injuries. It would be easy to say the Mansfield campaign is stumbling in the final stages, but that’s a very brave assumption.

Looking at the main dangers there are several. Davis Kellor-Dunn leads the way on 19 goals and 9 assists in 46 games and plays just behind the front two of Lucas Akins(14 goals) and Will Swan (10 goals) with left midfielder Stephen Quinn top of the assists with 10 so far this season.

There are also 4 former Dons to consider, one of our own George Williams (174 games and 4 goals for the Dons), Baily Cargill (68 games and 1 goal) although I don’t think Cargill will be a factor as I think he’s out for the season, Hiram Boateng who scored the Stags consolation on Saturday (65 games and 5 goals), and Jordan Bowery (22 games and 2 goals). Bowery now 32 years old has been a striker for most of his career but Mansfield have re-shaped him into a utility player, and he has played in most positions this season including centre half on Tuesday night, but mainly left or right back, and I’m certainly looking forward to seeing how he copes with Max Dean.

The gaffer at Mansfield is Nigel Clough someone we all know very well from both his playing days and his 26 year managerial career.

He has currently overseen 1,472 games with a record of W 604, D 293, L 575 giving him a Win Ratio 41% but that goes up a tad to nearly 45% with Mansfield. For reference Mike Williamson’s Win Ratio with the Dons is just under 58%, and a career figure of 49%.

Historically we have the edge over Mansfield including that memorable “Winner Takes All” game at the end of the 2018/19 season.

2006/07 – Mansfield 2 Dons 1 (Wilbraham)
2006/07 – Dons 1 Mansfield 1 (Taylor)
2007/08 – Mansfield 1 Dons 2 (Dyer, Stirling)
2007/08 – Dons 1 Mansfield 0 (Andrews)
2018/19 – Mansfield 1 Dons 1 (Houghton)
2018/19 – Dons 1 Mansfield 0 (Wheeler)
2023/24 – Mansfield 1 Dons 2 (Gilbey, Dennis)

That’s a Dons record of P 7, W 4, D 2, L 1, GF 9, GA 6.

The reverse fixture of this game has to be one of the best performances for us this season where we won 2-1. MJ was pulled up for a handball in the box and a spot kick was given. Kelly did superbly to save the pen and the rebound but was helpless for the third attempt scored by Quinn. Gilbey levelled from just outside the box after a poor defensive header hit Gilbey and rebounded in his favour to give him a free run on goal. Dennis missed a header from about 5 yards out and looked to have denied us the win but made up for it curling a ball into the far corner with the defender and keeper Pym looking like they expected it to go wide.

The betting gives us no clues and must have been a nightmare for the odds compilers. There is certainly value for both sides, but I’d say the bookies are siding with the draw.

MK Dons 8/5, Draw 13/5, Mansfield 9/5.

In other news, we are now 7/4 to win the playoffs and 5/1 to go up automatically.

I suppose you want a prediction now…you would…the hardest game of the season to call, but before I get to that just remember Mansfield fans will be feeling equally as anxious as we are.

OK…I have to go for us, they may be the best in the league away from home, but we have been superb in the last couple of months at home. Couple that up with a few dodgy results lately for them and the possible injuries, and they are going to have doubts about how we beat them at their place, plus they haven’t met Max Dean yet, I just think we may have too much for them, but I am still cautious, they like to start fast, and they fancied taking us on in the pass possession game last time out, so it’s going to be interesting how Clough sets them up…….one thing for sure it’s going to be tense, and I don’t expect many goals.

Try and enjoy it.

See you in the Cowshed.

WD

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Read the MELTDOWN after every game, no bullshit, just giving it straight

Easy to overlook that clough has managed over 1500 games- he is 15th in the all time list of games managed in England.

As for the game - we are at full strength really with tucker, Dean fit and the rest of the squad in good shape.
I think we will batter Mansfield tomorrow - 5 1 Dons. They won’t be able to live with us.

Tomlinson? MW 100% playing it down in is interview. Don't think we're seeing him again this season and without him, we're significantly weaker.