Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:48 pm
Posts: 4822
Location: In the Armchair.
|
THE CAZBAR BIG GAME PREVIEW – NOTTS COUNTYAs always a quick glimpse back over our shoulder and the Walsall game where we basically took them apart, and in case you hadn’t realised Walsall themselves were and maybe still are prospective playoff place candidates, winning their games in hand would put them in 7th, although you have to think that defeat must have dented their confidence, and I’m sure if things worked out they wouldn’t fancy playing us for a spot at Wembley.
It does though feel funny that we are talking about a 5-0 win when only a week ago we were all a bit stunned by having our backsides handed to us by title chasing Stockport.
I’m sure we could all list a few games this season where we have let ourselves down, and if we had played anything like we did against Walsall in some of those games we would already have one foot or more in League 1.
Personally I think the autos may well be out of reach now, but until you know who climbs onto the stage and starts singing anything is possible, but we have to take maximum points in the remaining games, and that means winning away from home and we have looked miles away from that lately.
Just in the nick of time Max Dean has returned and what an impact he had with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a MOTM award in around 30 second half minutes.
The whole mood in the Walsall back line changed almost instantly as the “Baby Face Assassin” came on and scared them half to death and it really was a case of “Max Dean’s on fire, your defence is terrified”…in fact I’m still disappointed the Cowshed didn’t offer him a few verses in appreciation.
You are though only as good as your next game, and that has proved problematic of late, and facing Notts County next will be a tough test of our character, but more on that later.
Below is the current record of both clubs .
County (16th) – P 40, W 15, D 6, L 19, GF 77, GA 76, Pts 51
Dons (4th) - P 41, W 21, D 7, L 13, GF 68, GA 54, Pts 70
County (H) (15th) P 19, W 10, D 1, L 8, GF 42, GA 34, Pts 31
Dons (A) (13th) P 20, W 7, D 3, L 10, GF 25, GA 35, Pts 24.
Looking a bit closer below is the breakdown of the home form of Nottc County.
Win – Morecambe, Doncaster, Crawley, Bradford, Newport, Swindon, Forest Green, Accrington, Tranmere, Grimsby.
Drawn – Barrow.
Lost – Salford, AFC, Sutton, Crewe, Gillingham, Walsall, Wrexham, Mansfield.
The Last 6 County games are also shown below, with the most recent game shown first.
Swindon 2 Notts Co 1
Notts Co 1 Salford 2
Bradford 0 Notts Co 3
Accrington 2 Notts Co 2
Crawley 2 Notts Co 1
Notts Co 0 AFC 2
As usual I’ll have a go at making sense of that and the most striking thing is they have lost their last 5 home games…..I’ll say that again and let it sink in, they have lost their last 5 home games. The home fans must be climbing up the wall, and although I will summarise later in the article, you have to think if we hit them hard and fast, the home faithful will be on their backs very quickly.
Looking at the main County dangers we have plenty to pick from, Macauley Langstaff 25 goals and 6 assists, Danny Crowley 15 goals and 9 assists, David McGoldrick 13 goals and 6 assists, but the one that catches my eye is Jodi Jones who plays down the left hand side and has 5 goals but a staggering 22 assists so it’s going to be down to Norman and Lofthouse to get a grip on him, clatter him a couple of times, put him in the first row of the grandstand, anything just to shut him up and cut out the supply to a deadly strike force that will punish you given a chance.
Looking at some obscure stats, it appears that Jones is one of the most fouled players in LG 2, so I would suggest he is becoming a target by some teams to stifle the way County play, so if you are watching Gaffer…..shut him down.
Talking of Gaffer’s the County boss / Head Coach Stuart Maynard is someone unknown to us and with due respect something of a strange appointment following the sacking of Russell Martin’s Assistant Luke Williams whilst he was at SMK.
Once on the books at Watford as a midfielder Maynard only ever played at non-league level and held just the one post of manager for Wealdstone, so we can guarantee Williamson knows all about him as they faced each other on the touchline last season when Wealdstone beat Gateshead.
One interesting little snippet about Maynard is whilst managing Wealdstone he was still working full time as a BT Engineer, a position he held for 19 years before of course resigning to head up things at Meadow Lane.
Looking at his stats I am hoping he hasn’t sold his tools as it makes for pretty grim reading. He managed 147 games for Wealdstone giving him a Win Ratio of just 30%, that’s not great but is eclipsed by his time at County which sees it plummet to just over 15% with a record of P 13, W 2, D 2, L 9, and you have to think he might be gone at the end of the season with probably the majority of those strikers who are far too good for County and League 2, the wages must be killing County, it can’t be sustainable and it smacks to me like they were banking on promotion and its all gone Pete Tong, it might be tough this year for County fans, but I have a feeling they haven’t bottomed out yet, next season could see them really struggle.
Historically we have a superb record against the Magpies especially at Meadow Lane with the full details shown below plus the Dons scorers.
2006/07 – Dons 3 County 2 (Dyer 2, Taylor)
2006/07 – County 2 Dons 2 (Dyer, Lewington)
2007/08 – Dons 3 County 0 (Andrews, Swailes, Wilbraham)
2007/08 – County 1 Dons 2 (Wright, Johnson)
2010/11 – County 2 Dons 0
2010/11 – Dons 2 County 1 (S Baldock, Balanta)
2011/12 – Dons 3 County 0 (Balanta, Morrison, Powell)
2011/12 – County 1 Dons 1 (Flanagan)
2012/13 – Dons 1 County 1 (O’Shea)
2012/13 – County 1 Dons 2 (Potter, Powell)
2013/14 – Dons 3 County 1 (Chadwick, Williams, Bamford)
2013/14 – County 1 Dons 3 (Alli 3)
2014/15 – County 0 Dons 1 (Powell)
2014/15 – Dons 4 County 1 (Grigg 2, L Baker, C Baker)
2018/19 – Dons 2 County 1 (Aneke, Healey)
2018/19 – County 1 Dons 2 (Wheeler, Aneke)
2023/24 – Dons 1 County 1 (Harvie)
That lot totals up at P 17, W 12, D 4, L 1, GF 35, GA 17.
In the reverse fixture of this match back in the Alexander era in September you may just have forgotten that County were actually top of the league. We drew 1-1 with a great goal from Dan Harvie who ran down the left wing, cut inside and fired past keeper Aidan Stone. Kyle Cameron equalised just after the hour with an equally decent strike. Both sides had good chances to win, with Langstaff and Harrison both squandering game winning opportunities in injury time.
On Good Friday County lost 2-1 away at Swindon, nothing remarkable in that you would think, unless you can remember the last time these two played in October, they were first and second in the league, County are now 16th, with Swindon 19th.
Looking at the betting I should think the odds compilers have had a sleepless night or two working this one out. Us being formidable at home, and the polar opposite away from SMK, and County who have lost their last 5 games at Meadow Lane. We are for what it’s worth narrow favourites, if you can’t work it out, County are £1-80 for a £1 stake to win, we are £1-50.
Notts County 9/5, Draw 14/5, MK Dons 6/4.
Right….summary time….well if you haven’t worked it out already County were amongst the early season favourites to go up, it started well, but for some reason it’s gone really badly. It looks like their whole strategy was to throw all their eggs in one basket and have the best attack in LG2 and try and muddle through with the rest of the team, in a nutshell we will score more goals than you type attitude, when it works County can be devastating, but their problem is their defence leaks like a sieve conceding a mind boggling 76 goals whilst scoring 77 goals, and it you watch the Swindon game from Good Friday you can see why.
The key then as I’ve mentioned earlier is, hit them early, cut the Jodi Jones supply line out, and punish them when they offer us chances, and they will.
Having Dean back is a massive bonus as we know he won’t need multiple chances to make them pay, hopefully he will be gagging for it and give their backline a torrid time but expect one or two hefty challenges on him as they test his fitness levels, hopefully Max doesn’t react as we know he can occasionally.
I expect this to be a high scoring game and I don’t rule out any scoreline….including 5-3 to us, so yes I’m taking us to win in front of a big travelling MK Army.
My only concern is the starting line up as both Bate and Wearne hobbled off on Friday, Bate has been superb even when we have lost, so to lose him now could be devastating.
Happy Easter folks, see you in Nottingham.  WD
_________________
Read the MELTDOWN after every game, no bullshit, just giving it straight
|
|
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
