Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:48 pm
Posts: 4813
Location: In the Armchair.
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THE CAZBAR BIG GAME PREVIEW – WREXHAMSaturday was an excellent result, as once again it was important to get back on track, and this time we actually gained some ground taking advantage of others slipping up.
What is concerning though is our recent run of results that have a reoccurring theme about them where we win one game then lose the next, so two or three wins on the bounce would certainly aid the promotion push, but on the flip side a couple of defeats one after the other would close the gap for the chasing pack, but thankfully we have manufactured a bit of a firebreak of 7 points, but we do have some tricky fixtures coming up on the horizon against in form Newport County, AFC, Mansfield, and Robbo’s Salford who have found a bit of form under his stewardship.
On Tuesday night Wrexham and possibly an entire Netflix film crew will be coming to Milton Keynes which is probably the reason we look like we will achieve one of our biggest attendances of the season so far, and that’s just not Wrexham fans, the people of MK look to be turning out in their numbers as well responding to Dan Harvie’s call to arms, or is it just the lure of a Hollywood “A Lister” coming to town, which he probably won’t.
Below as usual are the league records of both clubs, plus our home record and the away record of Wrexham.
Dons (5th) – P 32, W 16, D 6, L 10, GF 51, GA 43, Pts 54.
Wrexham (3rd) – P 31, W 17, D 7, L 7, GF 58, GA 42, Pts 58.
Dons (H) (4th) – P 16, W 10, D 3, L 3, GF 28, GA 16, Pts 33.
Wrexham (A) (12th) – P 15, W 5, D 5, L 5, GF 14, GA 20, Pts 20.
Looking at that away form of Wrexham in a bit more detail, below are the scores from those games with the most recent game shown first.
Sutton 1 Wrexham 2
Salford 3 Wrexham 1
Newport 1 Wrexham 0
Walsall 3 Wrexham 1
Swindon 0 Wrexham 1
Harrogate 2 Wrexham 2
Accrington 2 Wrexham 0
Notts Co 0 Wrexham 2
Bradford 1 Wrexham 1
Crawley 0 Wrexham 1
Mansfield 0 Wrexham 0
Stockport 5 Wrexham 0
Tranmere 0 Wrexham 1
Barrow 1 Wrexham 1
AFC 1 Wrexham 1
Other than the thrashing at the hands of Stockport earlier in the season nothing much stands out. Defeats to Salford and Newport are not really a shock with those two sides in form at the moment, and the draw at Harrogate isn’t a car crash, although Harrogate seem to reserve playing away for their better results, at home they are 15th in the table, and 2nd when playing away.
My assessment then, and you know I’m not the best at this is that Wrexham are not the worst side on the road, and very beatable, they only just squeezed past strugglers Sutton Utd recently and if we compare our result with Swindon and their recent one at the County Ground where they won 1-0 it’s fair to assume that this is going to be a close game.
Wrexham’s game on Saturday proves they are a resilient side as well running out 1-0 winners against Notts Co at the Racecourse and that after having just 26% of the possession. I think they will be happy to concede possession and trust themselves to keep us out and rely on their speed in counterattack to get the goals, and with that in mind I cannot see Lewie starting, to me it is too much of a risk, this in my eyes is not his type of game.
The likely danger is going to come from Elliot Lee who has 14 goals from 37 games from his midfield berth, and striker Paul Mullin who has scored 11 from 27 games, with the majority of assists coming from Sam Dalby with 8, but I note he appears to be out injured or suspended, so to see his name on the team sheet on Tuesday night would be a concern.
The manager is the vastly experienced Phil Parkinson who is on a 1 year rolling contact and has been since his appointment in July 2021 and he comes with a bit of a pedigree having managed, Colchester, Hull, Charlton, Bradford, Bolton, and Sunderland in the past covering some 954 games with a record of W 391, D 264, L 299, giving him a career Win Ratio of almost 41% although that rockets up to nearly 63% with Wrexham.
We have a good record against Wrexham although most of it dates back to 15-20 years ago. Below is the detail with the Dons scorers.
2004/05 – Dons 3 Wrexham 0 (Rizzo, Small 2)
2004/05 – Wrexham 0 Dons 0
2006/07 – Wrexham 1 Dons 2 (McLeod, O’Hanlon)
2006/07 – Dons 2 Wrexham 1 (Andrews, Platt)
2007/08 – Wrexham 1 Dons 0
2007/08 – Dons 4 Wrexham 1 (Wilbraham 2, Swailes, O’Hanlon)
2023/24 – Wrexham 3 Dons 5 (OG, Eisa, Leko 2, Harvie)
That totals up at P 7, W 5, D 1, L 1, GF 16, GA 7.
The betting is a bit tight in this one, but we are slight favourites for what it’s worth, and there is a tiny bit of value depending on where you place your money.
MK Dons 16/11, Draw 13/5, Wrexham 19/10.
If you do fancy us to climb to the top at the end of the season you might just be interested to know that the Dons are priced attractively at 66/1 to lift the title. To make the playoffs we are 8/15, and to win them 4/1 favourites, not so long ago you could have had 16/1 on the Dons winning at Wembley, don’t say I never told you.
I’m steering away from a prediction, we seem to have a better record when I don’t stick my neck on the line, but needless to say I will be hoping for a win.
I think as I have said already Wrexham will be happy to concede possession and try and hit us on the break, but I think this game is going to be won or lost in the middle of the park. Wrexham usually play a 3-5-2 formation and we usually line up 3-4-2-1 so I can see it getting very congested going through the middle and both sides could end up cancelling each other out, and it may be down to the wide men to influence the final result.
Sadly, I won’t be at the game, my first miss at a home game in about 9 seasons, but I have a pressing engagement and unfortunately, I can’t dodge it,
trust me I’ve tried.
I hope to get done quickly and listen to the second half on my way back home, so make sure you make plenty of noise.
Enjoy the game.
 WD
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Read the MELTDOWN after every game, no bullshit, just giving it straight
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