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THE CAZBAR BIG GAME PREVIEW – DERBY COUNTY
First of all, a quick review of the game on Good Friday against Portsmouth. Its funny how your expectations change, before the game I would have been delighted with a point, but with Pompey reduced to 10 men, it leaves you feeling we could have got more, hopefully at the end of the season we won’t look back and regret missing the opportunity.
Their goal for me was hugely disappointing and was similar to the first David Wheeler goal against Wycombe, the ball was floated into the back post and Ogilvie was given the freedom of SMK with no Dons defender anywhere near him. You have to concede it was still a tidy finish but without any defensive pressure the guy only had to concentrate in getting his effort on target.
Of course, the sending off changed the game, but I felt we needed to be more aggressive with our tactics after that especially with the ref collecting names so freely. Some of those defenders were as good as on final warnings, so we should have possibly been trying to take them on more.
I thought Mo did well to score but the keeper probably made it slightly easier when he chose to rush out of goal instead of defending his near post. We may have created more in the final 20-30 minutes, but the Tucker effort was about as good as it got. I found myself screaming at Stewart to shoot, but he seemed reluctant on several occasions, and when he finally did, I probably realised why he hadn’t previously, as his effort sailed high and wide into the Cowshed, trust me, I won’t be shouting for him to shoot again, and of course we nearly blew it when former “Pub Team” player Piggot grazed the crossbar with a late effort, so I suppose taking a point out of the game is no bad thing and we move on.
Moving on then, the next task in hand comes round quickly with an Easter Monday trip to Pride Park to face Derby County.
There has been huge change at Derby County, mainly kicking in during the summer. They were of course relegated last season with the contributing factor of being in administration and not being able to do business, and deducted points.
At the end of last season Wayne Rooney who was in charge decided to leave when David Clowes a local property developer became the new Rams owner and bought them out of administration. Just 5 first team players remained but within a month they rebuilt the squad and put the team in with a shout of promotion despite having the smallest squad in LG 1 of just 22 players, and having their wings clipped to a certain degree being limited to loans and free transfers, but it hasn’t stopped them securing the services of the likes of Conor Hourihane and David McGoldrick.
Below is the League record of both clubs, plus the home record of the Rams and the away record pf the Dons.
Derby (7th) – P 40, W 19, D 10, L 11, GF 61, GA 41, Pts 67.
Dons (19th) – P 40, W 11, D 8, L 21, GF 37, GA 57, Pts 41.
Rams (H) (5th) – P 20, W 12, D 4, L 4, GF 37, GA 18, Pts 40.
Dons (A) (13th) – P 20, W 7, D 3, L 10, GF 23, GA 31, Pts 24.
The 12 home wins for the Rams have come against, Oxford Utd, Peterborough, Barnsley, Wycombe, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge Utd, Forest Green, Bolton, Accrington, Cheltenham, Charlton, and Morecambe. The 4 defeats have come at the hands of Plymouth Argyle, Port Vale, Fleetwood Town, and Ipswich Town, and just to tidy things up the 4 draws against, Shrewsbury Town, Lincoln City, Sheffield Wed, and Exeter City, and I think there is enough evidence there to suggest our visit is no forlorn hope, I consider this game to be a free hit, and the pressure will be on them to get a favourable result.
On Good Friday the Rams travelled to Forest Green Rovers and unsurprisingly came away with all 3 points. A penalty after just 40 seconds helped them on their way but it took until the 82nd minute to make the points safe. Derby remain outside the playoffs on goal difference after three straight defeats saw them drop off the pace losing to Ipswich, Fleetwood, and Peterborough.
Our short but colourful history versus Derby County is below with all games being the Championship unless stated.
2015/16 – MK Dons 1 Derby 3 (J Murphy)
2015/16 – Derby 0 MK Dons 1 (Forster-Caskey)
2022/23 – MK Dons 1 Derby 3 (LG1) (Barry)
Record – P 3, W 1, D 0, L 2, GF 3, GA 6.
Just a quick sidenote, the 2015/16 games saw Bradley Johnson playing for the Rams and scoring the opening goal at SMK.
We last played Derby in November losing 3-1 at home in a game where we led after a Louie Barry wonder goal after 41 minutes which came from a Rams corner. The ball was cleared to Barry who ran the length of the opposition half unchallenged and rounded the keeper to score. Sadly though, it all went wrong very quickly, Roberts levelled 2 minutes later, and Collins gave Derby the lead early in the second half, with Mendez-Laing putting the game to bed 10 minutes from time.
Despite their small squad they have a wealth of talent, McGoldrick being the top scorer with 19 goals and 6 assists from 37 games, but threats come from all round the pitch with Derby, and the key is going to be cutting off the supply lines, that means neutralising Hourihane and Mendez-Laing who boast 9 assists each this season.
Liam Rosenior was the Interim Manager at the start of the season, but he was relieved of his duties and Paul Warne and his team including former Don’s Assistant Richie Barker were seduced into joining the Rams on a 4 year deal from Rotherham after being given permission to talk by the Millers owners.
49 year old Warne was a midfielder in his playing days starting at Great Yarmouth FC in the Eastern Counties League and then progressing to Diss Town, Wroxham, Wigan, Kettering Town, Mansfield, Oldham Athletic, Yeovil Town, and finally Rotherham Utd hanging up his boots in 2012.
Excluding Yarmouth, Diss, and Wroxham (No records), he played 526 games scoring 65 goals.
He joined the coaching team at Rotherham upon his retirement and 4 years later was handed the caretaker manager’s job after the resignation of Kenny Jackett, and three months later he was appointed the permanent manger.
Warne and his team took over in September of this season and so far have overseen 40 games with a Win Ratio of 44%. His career totals stand at P 332, W 130, D 76, L 126, with a Win Ratio of nearly 39%.
Betting – As you would expect the bookies have Derby as the firm favourites.
Derby 4/6, Draw 3/1, MK Dons 9/2
Team News – KaiKai looks to be ruled out with the thigh strain that kept him out of the Portsmouth game. Also doubtful is Harvie who was repeatedly kicked up in the air by Pompey and finally limped off in injury time, fingers crossed we get some good news about that, I therefore expect to see Jules drafted back into the team.
It was also reported by Toby Lock that Lewie had broken his nose in the game on Friday, I haven’t heard anything since, and I have no doubts about him starting on Monday, I was just wondering if we might see him wearing one of those protective masks.
Prediction – Head or Heart ?………my head says a Derby win but if we can get anything out of this game we have done well and it’s a massive bonus. My heart says anything is possible, just look at the Forest Green and Sheffield Wed result the other week, and as I have already mentioned, I consider this a free hit, the pressure is on them, keep them at bay for as long as possible, and they may just leave a few gaps we can exploit.
So, I’m not going to commit myself this week, despite getting it 100% correct on Friday, I’m just going to cross my fingers and hope to see more of this spirit that has been on show in recent weeks.
One good thing I can see is that those around us have got equally tough fixtures (shown below), and I can see at least one surprise result from all those involved, let’s just hope we spring the surprise.
Bolton v Cambridge
Charlton v Burton
Cheltenham v Ipswich
Port Vale v Oxford
Portsmouth v Morecambe
Sheffield Wed v Accrington
Wycombe v Forest Green
That’s it for another game folks, see you next week.
Safe travels to all who are making their way to the game.
WD
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Read the MELTDOWN after every game, no bullshit, just giving it straight
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