THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

- 13 games and 39 points left to play for. Mean average points for survival over the past 20 seasons has been 49 points (due to an anomaly of 45 points needed in one season), but the mode average is 51 points. So let's say 50 points for survival.

- We need 19 more points to stay up, so we need to be averaging 1.46 points per game i.e. we need to be winning and drawing more games than we are losing, with more wins than draws.

- We are currently averaging 0.93 points per game across the season. Since Micciche took over, we've averaged 0.2 points per game. Under Neilson we were averaging 1.07 points per game this season. Since 1st October we've averaged 0.66 points per game.

- Roughly, at most we can afford to lose SIX more games this season and still stay up, but that would pretty much mean winning the other 7 games.

- We need to be showing at least mid-table form for the rest of the season, based on current form and average points per game of other teams in the league.

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Points total for last 13 games for our last 5 seasons in League One:

2016/17: 19 points (finished 12th)
2014/15: 29 points (finished 2nd)
2013/14: 14 points (finished 10th)
2012/13: 23 points (finished 8th)
2011/12: 21 points (finished 5th)


Basically we need to be showing the kind of form that we did under Neilson at the tail end of last season when we beat Charlton, Gillingham, Southend, Walsall, Coventry and drew with Bradford, Rochdale, Port Vale and Swindon. We only lost 4 games to Millwall, Kingston, Scunthorpe and Sheffield United.

The only time this season we have matched that was the 13 games between 19th August and 21st October when we won 5, drew 4 and lost 4. We beat Gillingham, Plymouth, Rochdale, Kingston and Bury, and drew with Oxford, Northampton, Walsall and Oldham.

Interesting that the best form we've had this season has been when we've taken points from teams that are generally now in the relegation zone/bottom half (Kingston, Rochdale, Gillingham, Bury, Northampton, Walsall, Oldham).

Remaining fixtures

Fleetwood (A)
Bristol Rovers (H)
Bradford (A)
Rotherham (H)
Bury (H)
Blackpool (H)
Gillingham (A)
Blackburn (H)
Wigan (A)
Doncaster (H)
Southend (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Shrewsbury (A)

- If the results for the reverse fixtures are the same, then we would take 12 points and average 0.92 points per game - which is pretty much bang on what we've averaged throughout the season as a whole so far and would be some way off staying up.

- Away from home we have only taken 12 points out of a possible 51, averaging 0.70 points per game. Going by our form, that would suggest 4 points from a possible 18 in the remaining 6 away games we have.

- At home, we have taken 19 points out of a possible 48 points, averaging 1.19 points per game. Going by our form, that would suggest approximately 8 points from a possible 21 in the remaining 7 home games we have.

- Again, this further backs up our form, and so all the indicators are that we will get somewhere between 12-13 points out of a possible 39, which wouldn't be near the 19 points needed to survive.

- Final table prediction is we finish on 44 points, which on average in the past 20 seasons would leave us in 22nd place. The lowest points for survival in the past 20 seasons has been 45 points, which is a real anomaly compared to the usual 50/51.




Basically, the odds are hugely stacked against us looking at the table, points needed and our form. We would need to match our best form this season, and match the form we showed under Neilson's last 13 games of last season for us to just about stay up by the skin of our teeth.

Get ready for League Two folks.

Are you busy Filthy?

Not today

Great stats Filthy - beat me to it - many thanks indeed for the very thorough analysis

I agree, it's highly improbable that we'll avoid another relegation now with that poor run of results since November being followed by the worst start by any MK Dons manager in our history, but if we could miraculously turn around our abysmal form to win the next two games, then some confidence just might return, and the great escape could be on, with a large helping of luck and an unbeaten run over the next 7 games or so...

Fleetwood (A) W
Bristol Rovers (H) W
Bradford (A) D
Rotherham (H) D
Bury (H) W
Blackpool (H) W
Gillingham (A) D
Blackburn (H) L
Wigan (A) L
Doncaster (H) W
Southend (A) L
Scunthorpe (H) D
Shrewsbury (A) L

would get us to 50 points & probable safety...

If we don't win the next two games however, we are down without a doubt, imho of course...

IF we can beat both Fleetwood & Bristol, I'll fire up the Infinite Improbability Drive, and give it a really hot cup of tea...

_________________
P46_ _W _D _L PTS
07/08 29 10 _7 97 PI 1st
14/15 27 10 _9 91 KR 2nd
21/22 26 11 _9 89 LM 3rd
05/06 12 14 20 50 DW 22nd R
22/23 11 12 23 45 lm/MJ 21st R
17/18 11 12 23 45 rn/DM 23rd R
15/16 _9 12 25 39 KR 23rd R
LS: A rocky start, that's all it is.

We are down anyway. Just embrace it for what it is. Our first point in 6 games and that was a limp 0-0, which they hit the bar and should have won it.

Even IF we win on Saturday (which we wont IMO) we still need to get more results against better teams. Plus the fact that our April/May sees us play all of the top 3 at the moment we are all but down.

This is now the worst MK Dons squad I have ever seen. I am also questioning PW. He sacked Neilson too late. I don't question his passion. I question his long term planning. It is like he only sacks managers when we go below AFC Wimbledon and that was far too late in my eyes. Should have gone end of November at the latest.

All what you say is great, but we had much better squads then.

Agree with all that.

I just hope Pete has learnt his lesson re letting managers stay past their welcome. I was saying that Neilson should have been sacked back in November and people laughed at the idea. I could see the way things were going, and knew back in July we would have a shit season based on what was going on in pre-season with the poor results, performances and questionable transfer dealings.

Next time, I just hope Pete doesn't wait until it's too late like he did this season, and like he did with Robinson in the Championship and L1.

There's a bit of a flaw in your argument in that the results have got worse since we sacked Neilson.

Yes Filthy does have too much time on his hands. That's why I offered him a house-boy position in one of my many mansions. One Sunday morning off a month. If he wanted to spend his few hours precious free-time producing pointless online predictions then so be it.

_________________
He's cock royalty!

Interesting stats. Cheers.

But as you say, it's confidence. Neilson's way of playing and his signings are why we are where we are. The team is shot of confidence, used to playing naive and uninspiring football. On top of that, the types of players that Neilson brought in, generally aren't suited to Micciche's style of play and have been questionable and inconsistent in performances.

Had he have sacked him back in November, DM would have had time to turn things around and get them drilled a different way, as well as having time to scout/research and target better signings to fit his style of play in January. I have no doubt if DM had taken over in early November, we'd be mid-table or better now.

PW got the timing all wrong.