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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:50 am 
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SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
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Re: Marmite - bet you all like it now ?

You bet wrong.

Why would we want Northampton's most ineffective forward(s) back, with Bowditch now so ineffective that he couldn't score once in 16 appearances for them, so has now been loaned to L2 Stevenage to continue not scoring for them?
Image

Competent wumming as usual though, lol...


Poor logic. All you have done there is presented the analysis based on Northampton Town. I agree that they have not been great since going there, but you have totally missed the point. When they were both with us last season, they were doing a decent enough job, and I am sure they would have done the same for us this season. Whether they have settled down at a new club with a different manager and regime is immaterial. All of us know players, from the Premiership downwards, who flourish under certain managers and systems and then have done worse when they have moved on to other clubs. My point is that Potter, Powell and Bowds would have ALL done better than most of our squad this season - undisputed. I mean...try Potter v Cisse for starters....


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:54 am 
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Galverion wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
Quote:
Re: Marmite - bet you all like it now ?

You bet wrong.

Why would we want Northampton's most ineffective forward(s) back, with Bowditch now so ineffective that he couldn't score once in 16 appearances for them, so has now been loaned to L2 Stevenage to continue not scoring for them?
Image

Competent wumming as usual though, lol...


Poor logic. All you have done there is presented the analysis based on Northampton Town. I agree that they have not been great since going there, but you have totally missed the point. When they were both with us last season, they were doing a decent enough job, and I am sure they would have done the same for us this season. Whether they have settled down at a new club with a different manager and regime is immaterial. All of us know players, from the Premiership downwards, who flourish under certain managers and systems and then have done worse when they have moved on to other clubs. My point is that Potter, Powell and Bowds would have ALL done better than most of our squad this season - undisputed. I mean...try Potter v Cisse for starters....


Or Martin for Nicholls.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:10 am 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... APL Champion 2017/18 Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 19/20
Galverion wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
Quote:
Re: Marmite - bet you all like it now ?

You bet wrong.

Why would we want Northampton's most ineffective forward(s) back, with Bowditch now so ineffective that he couldn't score once in 16 appearances for them, so has now been loaned to L2 Stevenage to continue not scoring for them?
Image

Competent wumming as usual though, lol...


Poor logic. All you have done there is presented the analysis based on Northampton Town. I agree that they have not been great since going there, but you have totally missed the point. When they were both with us last season, they were doing a decent enough job, and I am sure they would have done the same for us this season. Whether they have settled down at a new club with a different manager and regime is immaterial. All of us know players, from the Premiership downwards, who flourish under certain managers and systems and then have done worse when they have moved on to other clubs. My point is that Potter, Powell and Bowds would have ALL done better than most of our squad this season - undisputed. I mean...try Potter v Cisse for starters....

I was replying to your initial question: "Marmite - bet you all like it now ?" as I quoted...
Why not call for Revell to return seeing as he's marginally more effective? DM could bring him on in goal instead of Nicholls...
In reply to your subsequent proposition, Potter would still have done a good job for us, but as for Powell & Bowditch, I'm afraid you are deluded as all the evidence of the past two seasons has shown. IMHO, of course... ;)
Competent wumming as usual though, lol...

_________________
P46_ _W _D _L PTS
07/08 29 10 _7 97 PI 1st
14/15 27 10 _9 91 KR 2nd
21/22 26 11 _9 89 LM 3rd

05/06 12 14 20 50 DW 22nd R
22/23 11 12 23 45 lm/MJ 21st R
17/18 11 12 23 45 rn/DM 23rd R
15/16 _9 12 25 39 KR 23rd R

LS: A rocky start, that's all it is.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:11 am 
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Posts: 6138
Location: .... In SG19 ..... APL Champion 2017/18 Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 19/20
keyser soze wrote:
Potter yes. Bowditch and Powell have had their day. Bowditch in particular has been awful since his injury.

This.

_________________
P46_ _W _D _L PTS
07/08 29 10 _7 97 PI 1st
14/15 27 10 _9 91 KR 2nd
21/22 26 11 _9 89 LM 3rd

05/06 12 14 20 50 DW 22nd R
22/23 11 12 23 45 lm/MJ 21st R
17/18 11 12 23 45 rn/DM 23rd R
15/16 _9 12 25 39 KR 23rd R

LS: A rocky start, that's all it is.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:30 am 
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Posts: 2847
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
keyser soze wrote:
Potter yes. Bowditch and Powell have had their day. Bowditch in particular has been awful since his injury.

This.


This


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:30 am 
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Posts: 2847
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
Galverion wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
Quote:
Re: Marmite - bet you all like it now ?

You bet wrong.

Why would we want Northampton's most ineffective forward(s) back, with Bowditch now so ineffective that he couldn't score once in 16 appearances for them, so has now been loaned to L2 Stevenage to continue not scoring for them?
Image

Competent wumming as usual though, lol...


Poor logic. All you have done there is presented the analysis based on Northampton Town. I agree that they have not been great since going there, but you have totally missed the point. When they were both with us last season, they were doing a decent enough job, and I am sure they would have done the same for us this season. Whether they have settled down at a new club with a different manager and regime is immaterial. All of us know players, from the Premiership downwards, who flourish under certain managers and systems and then have done worse when they have moved on to other clubs. My point is that Potter, Powell and Bowds would have ALL done better than most of our squad this season - undisputed. I mean...try Potter v Cisse for starters....

I was replying to your initial question: "Marmite - bet you all like it now ?" as I quoted...
Why not call for Revell to return seeing as he's marginally more effective? DM could bring him on in goal instead of Nicholls...
In reply to your subsequent proposition, Potter would still have done a good job for us, but as for Powell & Bowditch, I'm afraid you are deluded as all the evidence of the past two seasons has shown. IMHO, of course... ;)
Competent wumming as usual though, lol...


And this


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:06 am 
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Posts: 7672
Location: 1978/79
VEGEmite for me! :ugeek: 8-)
And WTF do all those graphs mean?
Can we just get some good players one day in who can...like....score? :o :shock: :ugeek:

_________________
Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:41 pm 
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Location: .... In SG19 ..... APL Champion 2017/18 Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 19/20
BertieWoostersDonsClub wrote:
Aliramone wrote:
VEGEmite for me! :ugeek: 8-)
And WTF do all those graphs mean?
Can we just get some good players one day in who can...like....score? :o :shock: :ugeek:

:lol:
This. And less of those.

Less evidence of reality? Nah.

Here's the reality of our attacking threat, to compare with Northampton's :geek:
Image
And for anyone who needs an explanation beyond what it says on the graphics - see below:

They are simple scatter graphics that work as follows:

Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:
1.Featured for at least a third of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
2.Taken an average of at least one shot per game.

The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.
Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:

On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes.
This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.

On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.

Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.

There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season).
If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%.
Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue.

https://experimental361.com/2017/12/17/ ... -dec-2017/
:ugeek:

_________________
P46_ _W _D _L PTS
07/08 29 10 _7 97 PI 1st
14/15 27 10 _9 91 KR 2nd
21/22 26 11 _9 89 LM 3rd

05/06 12 14 20 50 DW 22nd R
22/23 11 12 23 45 lm/MJ 21st R
17/18 11 12 23 45 rn/DM 23rd R
15/16 _9 12 25 39 KR 23rd R

LS: A rocky start, that's all it is.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:55 am
Posts: 6138
Location: .... In SG19 ..... APL Champion 2017/18 Betting Champion 2019/20 Power of 3 Champion 2017/18 + 19/20
BertieWoostersDonsClub wrote:
SG19 Cowshed Das Boot wrote:
BertieWoostersDonsClub wrote:
Aliramone wrote:
VEGEmite for me! :ugeek: 8-)
And WTF do all those graphs mean?
Can we just get some good players one day in who can...like....score? :o :shock: :ugeek:

:lol:
This. And less of those.

Less evidence of reality? Nah.

Here's the reality of our attacking threat, to compare with Northampton's :geek:
Image
And for anyone who needs an explanation beyond what it says on the graphics - see below:

They are simple scatter graphics that work as follows:

Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:
1.Featured for at least a third of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
2.Taken an average of at least one shot per game.

The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.
Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:

On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes.
This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.

On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.

Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.

There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season).
If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%.
Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue.

https://experimental361.com/2017/12/17/ ... -dec-2017/
:ugeek:

Fascinating. More of these. :?

Plenty more evidence-based reality where those came from - you don't have to read it if you want to ignore it... :)

_________________
P46_ _W _D _L PTS
07/08 29 10 _7 97 PI 1st
14/15 27 10 _9 91 KR 2nd
21/22 26 11 _9 89 LM 3rd

05/06 12 14 20 50 DW 22nd R
22/23 11 12 23 45 lm/MJ 21st R
17/18 11 12 23 45 rn/DM 23rd R
15/16 _9 12 25 39 KR 23rd R

LS: A rocky start, that's all it is.


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