I dont think we will need many more points to stay up but the sooner we get them on the board the better! I cant see oxford, Accrington and Morecambe doing much more than we can between now and the end of the season and i dont think we sill go onto lose 8 in a row now dare i say. I havent felt this assured about avoiding a relegation scrap since its just a blip and the team need time to gel in september!
For those that care:
Oxford: posh, wednesday, vale, bolton, portsouth, barnsley, cheltenham, forest green, accrington
Accrington: vale, wednesday, fleetwood, posh, portsmouth, bolton, cambridge, oxford
Morecambe: barnsley, plymouth, portsmouth, wycombe, charlton, lincoln, exeter
So starting with morecambe, for me yhey are down certs! Theyve played more games than us so less points available whilst having 5 less points on the board. You look at their fixtures snd how theyve faired recently and you cannot see a single point there for them. Footballs a funny old game but youd imagine theyd need 5 points to just draw level with us as well as 6 points to better us if we end the season with 6 losses, a win and a draw which would be poor. 11 points from their remaining games? No chance!
Look ahead to accrington: they look the best performing wise out of our 3 rivals but have been unlucky in defeats. However injuries and suspensions look to have decimated their chances. With 4 points needed tk draw level with us and again saying sorst case we pick up 4 points they would need 9 points given our superior goal difference. I see 7 points there for them personally. Not enough.
Oxford: who i assumed had the best squad down here and thought theyd be pushing for promotion but lord knows shats happened there? Come into the run in in terrible form and csnt even beat those around us recently. Where do their points come from if they cant beat morecsmbe? 10 or 11 games sithout a win is it? Looking at gheir run in i see 9 points. They may well still finish above us. But that 9 points is generous and given they cant beag anyone at ghe momdnt then id be literally gifting them 9 points based on last seasons form not this.
What sorks in our favour, going into the final game if we are above all 3 teams by 2 points or 1 point with a better goal difference we cannot really get relegated as it will take 2 out of thise 3 teams yo leapfrog us now and oxford and accy meet on the last daty with 1 point being the best both could achieve tk both leapfrog us! Just food for thought there!
Sk for me i think we can stay up. 7 points will guarantee it, 4/5 will be enough i think! The more the merrier though.
Looking at our run in : wycombe, portsmouth, derby, cheltenham, charlton, fleetwood, barnsley, burton. I see minimum 4 draws but ideally 2 wins and 2 draws. 8 points would surely seal our league one status?
|